Forecasting of rice self-sufficiency in the Benin Republic using ARIMA model

Oscar Akouegnonhou, Nevin Demirbaş

Abstract


Rice is one of the staple foods in the Benin Republic. Annual rice consumption is increasing faster than annual rice production. That is why Benin is not yet self-sufficient in rice production. To meet the local demand, huge quantities of rice are imported. For country planning, forecasting is the main tool for predicting rice variables. This paper describes an empirical study that used a time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) to forecast rice production, rice consumption, rice importation, rice exportation and finally rice self-sufficiency in Benin. Based on ARIMA model, the rice self-sufficiency rate in Benin is forecasted to be 44%, 52%, 56%, 53% and 60% respectively in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of rice production, adopt appropriate measures to develop rice sector for effective rice self-sufficiency and to reduce rice importation.

Keywords


ARIMA model; importation; rice production; rice consumption; self-sufficiency; Benin Republic

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abel G J (2009). Etude sur le développement des filières riz et maraîchage au Bénin. CTB ; pp.77.

Adégbola Y P & Sodjinou E (2003). Analyse de la filière riz au Bénin. Rapport définitif. PADSA, MAEP/INRAB/PAPA, Cotonou, Bénin.

Aho N & Kossou D (1997). Précis d’Agriculture Tropicale : Bases et Eléments d’Application. Edition du Flamboyant : Cotonou.

Awajan A M, Ismail M T, & Al Wadi S (2017). A hybrid EMD-MA for forecasting stock market index. Italian Journal of Pure & Applied Mathematics, 38(1), 1-20.

Beegle K, Christiaensen L, Dabalen A & Gaddis I (2016). Poverty in a RisingAfrica. World Bank Group, Washington DC (2016).

Berazneva & Lee (2013). Explaining the African food riots of 2007–2008: An empirical analysis. Food Policy, 39, 28–39.

Box G E P, & Jenkins G M (1970). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, San Francisco: Holden-Day.

Catherine & Chapoto (2017). Limits to Green Revolution in rice in Africa: Thecase of Ghana. pp: 1-18.

Christiaensen L (2017). Agriculture in Africa–Telling Myths from Facts: A synthesis. February 2017, Food Policy 67, 1–11.

Christiaensen L, Demery L & Kuhl J (2011).The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective. Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96–2 (2011), pp 239-254.

Davis B, Di Giuseppe S & Zezza A (2017). Are African Households (Not) leaving agriculture? Patterns of households’ income sources in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. Food Policy, 67 (2017), pp. 153–174.

Demirbaş N, Niyaz Ö C & Daysal H (2017). Evaluation of Self-Sufficiency in Lentil Production in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gazi osmanpasa University (JAFAG), (2017) 34 (3), 282-291.

FAO (2012a). Cadre de programmation pays (2012-2015).

FAO (2012b). FAO Statistical Yearbook 2012,World Foodand Agriculturehttp://www.fao.org/(Accessed to web: 5 March 2019 at 1:21).

Fofana I, Goundan A & Domgho L V M (2014). Impact simulation of ECOWAS rice self sufficiency policy, IFPRI DiscussionPaper 1405. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute,http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/128894.

Hemavathi M & Prabakaran K (2018). ARIMA Model for Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Rice and Its Growth Status in Thanjavur District of Tamil Nadu, India. Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 7(02): 149-156. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.702.019

Jacques A Z (2008). Etude économétrique de l’offre du riz local au Bénin à partir des données transversales; 87p.

Kennedy P (2006). Ekonometri kılavuzu, (çeviren Sarımeşeli M ve Açıkgöz Ş.), Gazi kitapevi, 5.baskı, Ankara, 745sayfa.

LARES (2008). Analyse des politiques et stratégies mises en œuvre par l’état dans la filière riz depuis 2008; 22p.

Laroche Dupraz & Postolle (2013). Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments: How much leeway do west African nations have?.Food Policy, 38, 115–125.

MAEP (2007). Analyse de la rentabilité économique de la chaine de valeur ajoutée riz. Cotonou, Bénin.

MAEP (2010). Diagnostic du secteur agricole de pays: dépenses publiques, Octobre 2010.

Ohyver M & Pudjihastuti H (2018). Arima Model for Forecasting the Price of Medium Quality Rice to Anticipate Price Fluctuations. Procedia Computer Science 135 (2018) 707–711

PNUD-IDH (2011). Rapport sur le développement humain 2011.http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr_2011_fr_complete.pdf(accessed 30June 2018, 10:12).

Rahman N M F, Hasan M M, Hossain M I, Baten M A, Hosen S, Ali M A & Kabir M S (2016) Forecasting Aus Rice Area and Production in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins Approach.

Saito K, Dieng I, Toure A A, Somado E A & Wopereis M C S (2015). Rice yield growth analysis for 24 African countries over 1960– 2012. Global Food Security, 5, 62–69.

Seck P A, Diagne A, Mohanty S & Wopereis M C S (2012). Crops that feed the world 7: rice. Food Security 4, 7–24.

Seck P A, Toure´ A A, Coulibaly J Y, Diagne A & Wopereis M CS (2013). Africa’s rice economy before and after the 2008 rice crisis. In M. C. S. Wopereis, D. E. Johnson, N. Ahmadi, E. Tollens, & A. Jalloh (Eds.), Realizing Africa’s rice promise (pp. 24–34). Wallingford: CABI Publishing.

Sharma P K, Dwivedi S, Ali L & Arora R K (2018). Forecasting Maize Production in India using ARIMA Model. Agro Economist - An International Journal. AE: 5(1): 01-06, June 2018. DOI: 10.30954/2394-8159.01.2018.1.

Suleman N & Sarpong S (2012). Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach. International Journal of Agricultural Management & Development, 2(2): 79-84, June, 2012.

Thirtle C, Lin L & Piesse J (2003). TheImpact of Research-Led Agricultural Productivity Growth on Poverty Reduction in Africa, Asia and Latin America. World Development, 31(12), 1959-1975. doi: 10.1016/ j.worlddev.2003.07.001.

USDA ( 2016). PSD Online home Custom query. 〈http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/.

Van Oort P A J, Saito K, Tanaka A, Amovin-Assagba E, Van Bussel L G J, van Wart J, de Groot H, van Ittersum M K, Cassman K G, & Wopereis M C S (2015). Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15316/SJAFS.2019.177

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.